Here’s why there is such a contrast in polls for Scott Brown between PPP and Boston Globe

vote democrat its easier than workingAmerican Spectator, like myself have a hard time imagining that Scott Brown winning in a state like Massachusetts to replace a Senate seat held by Ted Kennedy. It just makes about as much sense to me as say Vermont electing a Republican to replace socialist nut job Bernie Sanders, or just plain Democrat nut job Patrick Leahy. But why are polls showing such different results? The American Spectator has some ideas.

Some have noted that the Globe poll was taken from Jan. 2-6th, while PPP was in the field from Jan. 7th-9th, but the timing was so close that it couldn’t really explain the dramatic change. It’s also worth keeping in mind that PPP is the firm that gave conservative challenger Doug Hoffman a huge lead in New York’s 23rd Congressional race that was ultimately won by Democrat Bill Owens.

Then there’s the issue of Independents polled. The Boston Globe’s poll which shows Coakley with a 15 point lead sampled only polled 81 independents, while PPP polled about 290. Such a difference in sample size could explain the wide difference in results among independents, and perhaps lend more credence to the PPP numbers among this group. Independents obviously more more pro-Brown, as the Governorships of Virginia and New Jersey showed last year. The problem is the electorate will end up being far more Democratic than what’s reflected in the PPP survey.

No TweetBacks yet. (Be the first to Tweet this post)

January 10, 2010 · Filed Under Democrats, Scott Brown


Comments