Could the GOP actually win back the Senate in November?

rnc-logoDick Morris seems to think the GOP will take back the Senate in November by 2 votes for a total of 52. I am not as optimistic as Morris. There are some seats that are almost certain to go GOP such as Harry Reid’s seat, Blanche Lincoln’s seat and Dorgan’s vacated Senate seat. Other seats such as Michael Bennett’s seat in Colorado and Joe Biden’s old seat in Delaware are sounding more and more like they will go Republican as well. And there’s Pennsylvania where Arlen Specter isn’t exactly in a safe position either. That would give the GOP 46 seats. With Evan Bayh now being challenged by Dan Coats, that now puts the Indiana senate seat in play. Of course, there’s New York with 2 Dems (Schumer and much more likely Gillibrand) facing a strong challenge. In California Barbara Boxer is in a bit of trouble (though still ahead in the latest polls), and in Illinois RINO extreme Mark Kirk is taking on bank frauder Alexi Giannoulias. There was even polls released lately that Russ Feingold in Wisconsin trialed in the polls to Tommy Thompson should he choose to run and Patty Murry in Washington State in trouble. Even Politico is starting to wonder if the GOP can take back the Senate.

Republicans suddenly have a conceivable path to winning back the Senate in November, after locking in top-flight candidates overnight in Illinois and Indiana.

A 10-seat pickup for the GOP — once regarded as an impossibility even by the party’s own strategists — remains very much a long shot. It would still require a win in every competitive race, something that happens only in wave elections like 1994 and 2008.

But only 14 months after the GOP was routed up and down the ballot on the night of Barack Obama’s election, the new political environment makes significant Senate gains likely. And within the past 24 hours, a Republican recapture of the Senate is at least within the realm of speculation.

With all the usual disclaimers attached — do not engage in political odds-making while taking medication or operating heavy machinery — here’s why a Republican takeover is at least possible:

GOP officials tell POLITICO former Sen. Dan Coats will run against incumbent Democratic Sen. Evan Bayh, instantly transforming Indiana into a competitive race.

Rep. Mark Kirk won the Republican Senate primary in Illinois, beating back a tea party challenge and giving the GOP the best chance of winning President Obama’s former seat.

This comes one week after Beau Biden, the son of Vice President Joe Biden, decided not to run for his father’s former seat in Delaware. Democrats have a credible backup candidate in New Castle County Executive Chris Coons, but GOP Rep. Mike Castle, who has run and won 11 times statewide, is the strong favorite.

To pick up 10 seats, Republicans would have to run the table in competitive races — and get a miracle (or a big favor from an old friend), too. More on that in a moment.

Republicans look very strong in many of those races. They are clobbering Democratic Sen. Blanche Lincoln in Arkansas by 20 points in recent polls. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid isn’t faring much better. He’s down by double digits to relatively unknown GOP opponents. Sen. Byron Dorgan’s decision to retire made North Dakota an almost hopeless case for Democrats.

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February 3, 2010 · Filed Under 2010 Elections


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