Minnesota: Obama 47% Romney 43% | among independents Romney 45% Obama 32%
Yep, Obama is in deep sh*t. Minnesota is now in play for Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan. In state that hasn’t voted for a Republican for president since 1972, Obama can only manage a 4% lead in the latest NMB research poll of likely voters. Not only does Obama lead in the poll by just 4% which is in the margin of error, but Romney is absolutely destroying Obama among independents. According to this poll Romney trounces Obama by 13 points: 45% to 32%. Independents also have a very negative view of Obama in Minnesota: just 36% have a favorable view of him, while 49% have an unfavorable view of Obama. This is incredible. No wonder the Obama campaign is panicking and sending Jill Biden to campaign there next week!
In 2008, 25% of the voter turnout was independent. Also, there was only a +4 Democrat advantage in the ObamaWAVE election. This year, it’s much more likely to be even between Republicans and Democrats, and there will undoubtedly be more independents voting. In 2008, independents in the state voted 56% to 39% for Obama over McCain.